Latest Prediction Says Social Security Recipients to Get 3.9% Raise in 2027

By Matt Durr
mlive.com
(TNS)

Social Security recipients are in line for a bigger increase in 2027 than they’ve received since 2023. However, experts say rising costs due to inflation are likely to eat into the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) and then some.

According to The Senior Citizens League, Social Security payments are expected to rise by 3.9% in 2027. While each beneficiary’s monthly payment is different, TSCL says that would increase the average check by $81.17, from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33.

However, the non-partisan senior advocacy group also points out that seniors are already feeling the pinch, and a 3.9% increase isn’t likely to go very far.

“Many seniors are telling us the same thing: As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable,” said TSCL executive director Shannon Benton. “The average senior already lives on much less than younger Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and our supporters constantly tell us they feel like they’re falling farther and farther behind.”

As Medicare premiums, housing costs, utilities, and grocery prices continue to rise, many seniors are cutting back on medical services and other essentials. A recent study by the group found that 57% of respondents have forgone one or more medical products or services in the last year due to cost.

The study found the top services cut are dental (42.3%), vision (28.8%) and hearing (19.6%). TSCL previously explained that premiums for Medicare Part B rose by 9.7% for 2026—from $185.00 to $202.90—more than three times the 2026 COLA of 2.8%. The premiums also grew faster than the COLA in 2024 and 2025.

“For retirees living on fixed incomes, the costs that matter most, especially healthcare, housing, utilities, and insurance, continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry,” Benton said. “This makes the national affordability conversation even more important than ever.”

As gas prices continue to rise, so too does the cost of household goods, which fuels the projected 3.9% increase. The COLA is calculated by using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) for the months of July, August and September.

That number is then compared to the same time period from the year prior and the COLA is calculated from there. The CPI-W factors in the spending habits of Americans when it comes to items like food, consumer goods, housing, health care and more.

The annual increase has been up and down in recent years. In 2023, beneficiaries received an 8.7% increase, in 2024 it was a 3.2% increase and a 2.5% bump in 2025. In 2026, the COLA increased slightly to 2.8%.