By Matt Durr
mlive.com
(TNS)
Social Security beneficiaries are expected to receive the lowest cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) since 2021, according to the latest forecast from the Senior Citizens League. Last week, the nonpartisan senior advocacy group released its latest 2026 COLA projection, estimating the increase will come in at 2.4%.
While that is up slightly from the 2.3% forecasted last month, it still represents a smaller increase than the 2.5% COLA for 2025. If the forecasted 2.4% COLA holds, it would be the lowest since 2021, when the COLA was 1.3%.
- Related article: Latest Prediction Shows Social Security COLA to Increase 2.3% Next Year
- Related article: SSA Issues 2.5% COLA Increase For 2025
A survey conducted by TSCL found that 94% of respondents found that last year’s 2.5% increase was too low. Those same respondents said they were worried their monthly Social Security checks would fall behind inflation.
“If our predictions come true and the 2026 COLA comes in at the lowest we’ve seen since 2021, seniors will face additional pressure at a time when they’re already strained financially, said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. ”Our research shows that 73 percent of American seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income, with 39 percent depending on the program for all of their income.”
TSCL went on to say that while it applauds recent efforts by President Donald Trump to lower prescription drug costs, its members say they need more money regardless for everyday expenses.
“Our research puts numbers to what seniors have been telling us for years: Social Security benefits aren’t keeping up with inflation, inadequate COLAs are to blame, and seniors aren’t happy with Congress’s failure to act,” Benton said. “The vast majority of Americans, 55.8 million seniors—93 percent—believe Social Security and Medicare reform should be a high or top priority for Congress and the Presidential administration.”
The yearly COLA is calculated using Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) for the months of July, August, and September each year. Those numbers are compared to the year prior and a new COLA is calculated.
The CPI-W is calculated by using the spending habits of Americans on items like food, consumer goods, housing, health care and more. In April, the CPI-W came in at 2.1%.
If the 2026 COLA were to land at 2.4%, it would mark the third consecutive year of declining adjustments. In 2023, the COLA was a record 8.6%, and dropped to 3.2% in 2024. The 2025 COLA came in at 2.5%.
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©2025 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit mlive.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC.
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Tags: COLA, Payroll, Social Security
