By Rebecca Liebson
Tampa Bay Times
(TNS)
Sweeping property tax cuts are on the horizon for some Florida homeowners following the passage of Amendment 3.
The measure will raise the statewide homestead exemption to $250,000 over the next two years. It will also place stricter limits on tax increases for all other properties.
But will it give Florida’s real estate market a leg up during tough economic times? Industry leaders are divided, with most taking a wait-and-see approach.
The total number of homes sold in the Tampa Bay metro area is down about 5.2% compared to this time last year. That’s according to the latest statistics from the Suncoast Tampa Association of Realtors.
Some real estate agents are urging out-of-state buyers to move before the end of the year to lock in tax savings. Anyone who moves after 2026 will have to wait five years to receive the full homestead exemption.
Corina Lessa Silva, president of the Suncoast Tampa Association of Realtors, said she’s not expecting a dramatic bump in sales over the next couple of months. You don’t have to buy a home to establish residency, she said; renting works, too.
Still, “If a big piece of that monthly payment—which is property tax—is going to be lowered … it could help more people get into homes in the long term,” Lessa Silva said.
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Savings will vary widely. The nonpartisan nonprofit Florida Tax Watch estimates that by 2028, homestead property owners could save an average of $1,133 in Hillsborough County, $956 in Pinellas and $1,150 in Pasco.
For renters trying to break into the housing market, those savings probably aren’t enough to make up for the other costs of homeownership, said Lei Wedge, an assistant professor of finance at the University of South Florida’s Muma College of Business.
Freddie Mac pegs the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at a steep 7.18%. The median price for a home in Tampa Bay is about $400,000, according to the Suncoast Tampa Association of Realtors.
“Just because your future property tax will be cheaper, it does not help you with your down payment right now,” said Wedge.
Though most of the focus has been on single-family homeowners, commercial property owners are bracing for major changes, too.
Bowen Arnold, principal of Tampa-based DDA Development, said in the past three or four years, he’s seen the taxes on commercial properties he owns shoot up more than 10% in some cases.
“It’s a big burden,” he said.
Under the new rules, local property appraisers cannot increase the assessed value of non-homestead properties by more than 5% per year.
But don’t expect to see a spike in commercial sales as a result, said Andrew Frey, a managing director at the commercial real estate firm JLL.
“This will be of zero benefit for the buyers, it’s just a windfall for the current owners,” he said.
The biggest question hanging in the air is how local governments will fill major funding gaps caused by these tax cuts.
One solution might be by increasing the millage rate used to calculate our tax bills. That would end up canceling out some of the savings promised to homesteaded property owners, while raising everyone else’s taxes in the process, Wedge said.
Developers could also end up shouldering greater costs if cities decide to charge higher impact fees or raise the cost of construction permits, said Arnold.
All this uncertainty could put a damper on commercial markets, said Frey. “Investors like predictability. It could cause investors to push pause for a while until these things are sorted out.”
Photo credit: Levi Grossbaum/Unsplash
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©2026 Tampa Bay Times. Visit tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC.
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