Support for a proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ wealth is waning among California voters, according to a new independent poll released this week.
Proposition 40, a highly contentious November ballot measure, has the support of 46% of likely voters in the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California—down from last month’s poll, which showed it had majority support with 52% of likely voters in favor.
In the latest poll, which was conducted between Oct. 16 and 22 by the San Francisco-based nonpartisan research group, 52% of likely voters were opposed and 2% were undecided. The initiative also saw a 9-percentage-point decline in support among likely Bay Area voters, from 58% in support last month to 49% in support in the latest survey.
The PPIC surveyed 1,086 likely voters and the poll had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
Proposed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the measure would help offset federal Medicaid cuts. The Legislative Analyst’s Office projects that Proposition 40 will raise “tens of billions” for healthcare and food assistance over the next five years.
Wealthy opponents of the initiative have launched a massive spending blitz in recent months as they campaign against Prop. 40, while also boosting two countermeasures—Propositions 41 and 42. If Proposition 41 or 42 passes and receives more “yes” votes than Proposition 40, the billionaire tax could be blocked even if voters approve it. Nearly $400 million has been spent collectively on the three measures.
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Prop. 41, which would require the state auditor to review proposed special taxes before they’re placed on the ballot and void taxes that don’t comply with the state spending limit, fell below the majority line in the latest PPIC poll, with 48% of voters in support and 49% opposed. Last month’s poll found that 51% of voters supported the initiative, while 44% were opposed.
Prop. 42, which would prohibit new state personal property taxes, still had a majority support, 51%, in the latest survey, but was down from 54% support last month.
Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s statewide survey director, said in an interview that voters have more information about the three measures, including the supporters and the opponents. For Prop. 40, Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, the California Nurses Association, and Rep. Ro Khanna are listed as some of the supporters in the state voter guide, while Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Teachers Association and both the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor—former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Fox News host Steve Hilton—are listed as opponents.
Baldassare said that voters are “not convinced that this is the right way to tax the wealth now.”
“Most Californians still say they want to tax the wealthy, but the energy around taxing the wealthy has now kind of moved over to Prop. 3, which is the extension of the tax on high incomes in California,” he added, noting that the initiative, which would extend a tax that funds education, had the support of 58% of likely voters.
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