Key findings
- 76% plan to increase AI investment
- 67% of finance teams already run AI in AP, but only 39% have built the operating model to execute at scale
- 68% need ROI before any further finance technology spend
- 55% expect AI investments in AP to pay back within six to 24 months
- 46% have only struck an effective balance between governance and innovation
- 65% say major or urgent improvement is needed to adjust to new financial regulations
- 64% prioritize stability and compliance over raw innovation when choosing AI
For years, finance leaders have invested in the potential of AI. Now, they’re requiring proof it can scale under real operating conditions. According to the findings of From Experimentation to Execution: Governed Autonomy for AI in Accounts Payable, a new Forrester Consulting Opportunity Snapshot commissioned by Basware, the global leader in Invoice Lifecycle Management (ILM), the criteria for AI success in accounts payable have shifted.
Three quarters (76%) of enterprise finance and AP decision-makers plan to increase AI investment over the next 12 to 24 months, but 68% say they’ll require demonstrable ROI before committing more funds. The gap isn’t ambition, it’s execution. 67% already use AI for targeted AP use cases, but only 39% operate AI centers of excellence at scale.
Control is now the deciding factor. 64% prioritize stability and compliance over raw innovation when choosing AI, and less than half (46%) say they’ve struck an effective balance between governance and innovation. Success is no longer just about what AI can do. It’s about whether teams can control it.
Investment is Rising, as are Expectations
Finance leaders are rejecting the promise of instant AI returns.
According to the Forrester study, only 7% of finance leaders expect AI investments in AP to pay back in under 6 months; 20% expect payback within 6 to 12 months; and 35% expect value to take 13 to 24 months to materialize.
The demand for proof reflects where AI is now operating. Finance leaders are looking for value that holds up in live operations, where process complexity exposes weak business cases. Meanwhile, two thirds (65%) need major or urgent improvement to meet new financial regulations, such as Nacha’s 2026 fraud monitoring rules now in effect in the US, and 63% point to growing demand for data-backed decision-making.
AI investment is already concentrating in AP areas where the link to control is easiest to demonstrate.
“Finance is a strong place to start with AI because the value can be measured,” said Donna Wilczek, Chief Product and Technology Officer, Basware. “The challenge is getting from ambition to execution in a way the business can trust. Once outcomes are proven, the remit can grow.”
Moving From Automation to Trusted Execution
The question of trust is now the central tension. An AI agent resolving an invoice exception or recommending an approval needs permission to act, and a reliable record of what happened. With 68% of finance leaders requiring demonstrable ROI before committing further technology spend, AP has become an early test of whether AI can move from automation to trusted execution.
“Governed AI is no longer aspirational, it’s a board-level requirement,” said Wilczek. “Every AI decision in accounts payable needs to be logged, traceable, and auditable from the moment it’s made, not reconstructed after the fact.”
Finance must set clear guardrails to guide these decisions. Basware’s Governed Autonomy framework lets finance teams define how far AI can act. Human review stays in the workflow wherever judgment is required. AI’s authority expands only as outcomes are proven. The framework sets three levels of AI authority, from Advisor to Collaborator to Operator, so autonomy grows only as each level earns trust.
“Success in the next phase of AP won’t be achieved by the teams using the most AI, but by the teams that govern it best,” Wilczek added.
On August 17, Forrester Principal Analyst Meng Liu, will join Basware’s Anssi Ruokonen, Head of Data and AI, for a live webinar to walk through From Experimentation to Execution: Governed Autonomy for AI in Accounts Payable and discuss what’s driving the gap and how to close it. Click here to register for the event.”
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