Retail spending bounced back in July as consumers sought out summer sales promotions to buy goods before more tariffs take effect, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, says the National Retail Federation.
“Consumer spending increased in July, driven by successful summer sales events held by many retailers and shoppers continuing to pull purchases forward ahead of tariffs,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Month-over-month gains were sizeable against a weaker-than-normal June. We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.”
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Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.45% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.89% unadjusted year over year in July, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.33% and an increase of 3.19% year over year in June.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 1.55% month over month in July and up 5.93% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.32% month over month and an increase of 3.36% year over year in June.
Total sales were up 4.83% year over year for the first seven months of the year and core sales were up 5.07%.
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Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
July sales were up in all but one out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and general merchandise stores, and were also up in all but one category on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 1.35% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 25.01% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 2.36% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 9.99% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were up 2.04% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.94% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.75% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.73% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.43% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.42% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were up 1.69% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.44% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.51% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.11% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.53% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were up 1.32% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 4.11% year over year unadjusted.
To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.
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