Initial Social Security COLA Predictions Are in for 2026

Payroll | January 30, 2025

Initial Social Security COLA Predictions Are in for 2026

For those living on a fixed income such as Social Security, a key part of financial planning may include keeping tabs on next year’s cost of living adjustment, and right now they’re looking pretty low.

By Dallas Gagnon
masslive.com
(TNS)

As January 2025 nears its end, some folks are already planning ahead for 2026 and keeping their finances at the forefront.

For those living on a fixed income such as Social Security, a key part of financial planning may include keeping tabs on next year’s cost of living adjustment, and right now they’re looking pretty low.

Non-partisan group The Senior Citizens League is predicting a modest increase of about 2.1% in 2026, following 2025’s increase of 2.5%—the lowest COLA increase in years.

TSCL bases its prediction on inflation data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index—the same method the Social Security Administration uses to calculate COLA.

In December, TCSL predicted a 2026 COLA adjustment of 2.8% for 2026.

“In other words, cooling inflation could lead to the lowest COLA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the group wrote in a statement.

“… 2025’s COLA was a meager 2.5%, down from 3.2% in 2024 and a whopping 8.7% in 2023. The last time the COLA came in below 2.0% was 2021 when it was 1.3%,” the group said.

While slowing inflation is a good thing, the league warns that it doesn’t mean prices will fall but that they will just rise more slowly.

“This leaves many seniors facing a budget shortfall,“ the league said.

Shannon Benton, TSCL executive director, said inflation slowing down does not translate to seniors catching up.

Data from TSCL’s 2024 Senior Survey shows 62% of older Americans worry their retirement income won’t even cover essentials such as groceries and medical bills.

“It’s essential that Congress acts quickly to fix years of sub-par COLAs and help give seniors the quality of life they deserve,” Benton said.

The group added if President Donald Trump follows through with his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, it could save seniors up to $3,000 a year—about 5% of a typical senior budget.

“The Trump administration’s plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits would make a massive difference,” Benton said. “The current thresholds used to determine if you’ll pay taxes on your benefits were set up back in the 1980s, and we’ve never adjusted them for inflation.”

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©2025 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit masslive.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC.

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Comments: 6

CG RainesFebruary 2 2025 at 10:45 pm

"“In other words, cooling inflation could lead to the lowest COLA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the group wrote in a statement." What planet are they living on? Have they seen the cost of eggs and poultry lately? Slowing inflation, really? What standard are they going by, I'd love to live in that world!

Michael NagyFebruary 2 2025 at 11:23 pm

No matter what percentage they put it at the cost of living is always going to be higher and out of our reach to be able to afford all the things we need even on SSI doesn't matter they will keep it to where we can't get ahead like they can with all the funds and money they make doing the things they do we were just trying to survive

Amy hendersonFebruary 6 2025 at 11:50 am

Americans need stimulus monthly checks since the pres is taxing everything from other countries the cola is going to skyrocket Americans can not afford a hamburger let alone a place to live all disabled Americans are still starving we need 25.00 an hour minimum wage and maybe we could afford a McDonald's ecoli hamburger everything's contaminated people don't go out to eat 72.00 for 5 tacos at pappasitos get the same at taco bell for 7.00

Amy hendersonFebruary 6 2025 at 11:56 am

Americans are all broke no money for rent anywhere it takes four paycheck of 25.00 an hour to afford a one bedroom house people everywhere living in their cars if they are lucky enough to buy a car which will be 3000.00 more per vehicle starting now since pres taxing we will all pay extra 5 dollars every time you sit at a red light there's another 5 bucks. Who voted for this person is as dumb as a 300.00 dollar pair of holey jeans

MarcFebruary 8 2025 at 10:00 am

I think we need to have another massive tax cut for the rich and corporations. Add another mismanaged COVID 2.0, push retirement age, gut social security, medicaid and start a few trade wars along the way. That's what we need.

Lynn DeckardFebruary 8 2025 at 12:12 pm

It's sad when we get a raise we loose almost all of it because it's nothing but a paper switch. So many of us live way below th3 po ery level as it is. I receive SSDI my job caused that back in 1995. A bad back injury. In 29 years, do I want to be on disability no. It was beyond my control. But I've lived in poverty. So my 3 children also lived it with me. I know live in subsidized housing. When I get a raise they decrease any foodstamps and up the rent. So if I get a 25 dollar raise I will only have use of like 4 dollars a month so aĺ together 48 dollars a year. Looks so good on paper. So the raise is nothing to me we are already way below poverty level. So it's only a paper shuffle. These big raises for me amount to almost nothing. So the prices of goods and services is almost impossible. I have a car that needs desperate work. But saving the money is almost impossible. They say social security is going to run out of money, yet the can spend a trillion or better on foreign aid when we have so much poverty here. Government thinks nothing of us. We are a social security number a tax on government. Yet those in upper government make so much money as they are inside trading. That's why so many have more then one experience homes. Let's decrease there salary's. They have done nothing but act like children fighting like 2 year Olds. Alot of talk but no action. AMERICA IS THE GREATEST NATION so why do we have hunger and people trying to pay bills and food, Yet we give AMERICANS TAX MONEY TO A CAUSE THAT AMERICANS NEVER WOULD HAVE VOTED ON, THESE TYPE OF BILLS SHOULD INVOLVE ALL AMERICANS. EVERY YEAR HAVE A SPECIAL VOTING BALLOT THAT ASKS AMERICANS about the money given to causes if we say no then money should not be given to those lost causes that do not help Americans and to give aide where Americans believe it should go. Beurocrats and so much government needs to go they do nothing for us we the people should have a say in most of what our government does because the house the senate and congress all of them do not do the will of the people. God has blessed our country so our government must do better for our citizens, we come first.

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