Tech Predictions for 2012
At a global broadband policy conference in late 2011, I was asked to define the state of technology in this year. The answer came down to this: 2011 was the year that reality set in. That requires a bit of explanation, but we can begin to define it...
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2. The United States Will See Data Caps For Internet Services. Most of the world has long since adjusted to having data caps for broadband internet, but for those in the United States the whole concept is foreign and repugnant. Nonetheless, as we move to a combination of wireless and fiber for our internet connections, the current “all you can eat” menu will give way to a “pay for how much you want” scheme. And it will happen this year. Already being adopted by cellular broadband and cable, it will rapidly spread to other segments of the internet … with substantial penalties for breaking the cap. 2012 will be an awkward year, in which the data caps become a battleground for video-on-demand services and some download services, but this should settle down by the end of 2013.
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3. Recession Will Hit The Tech Industry … Finally. One of the few segments of the economy that has weathered the current recession with no outward sign of serious impact, the tech industry is starting to show signs of turmoil. Venture capital has dried up, initial public offerings are being deferred, employee benefits are shrinking, profits are down and merger activity is sluggish. It’s not that the pace of change is any different or that new products are not coming into the market. It’s that consumers don’t have enough discretionary money to spend, and companies can’t get funding for expansion.
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4. The Kindle Fire Will Catch Fire. Trust Amazon to realize what the major computer manufacturers did not — that there is a huge, untapped market for recreational computing devices. Until now, the computing market has been split between the gamers with their consoles and handhelds, and the “serious” devices for business use. The new Kindle Fire, introduced at the end of 2011, represents a new kind of device. A toy for grownups, if you will, that allows for book reading, video viewing and basic internet functionality.
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5. 3-D Television Will … I’m Not Sure What It Will Do. As one of the people who still remembers sitting at the drive-in theater with those goofy red-and-blue-lens 3D glasses, I can state with a fair amount of confidence that 3-D television isn’t going anywhere in 2012. Sure, it’s something fun to look at every 30 years or so. But in the living room? Today, 3-D sets and programming are too expensive and don’t deliver enough improvement in the quality of the entertainment to make them more than a novelty. As previously noted, some really great-sounding technologies turn out to be just stupid.
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6. Privacy will be a major battle. Google tracks your every move online and sells the information to advertisers, the government and anyone else who wants to buy the data. So does Facebook. So does the OnStar system in your car. And guess what? Even that new Kindle Fire is designed to capture all your web browsing and viewing behaviors. It’s not an issue that Congress wants to take up in an election year — what member of Congress wants to risk contributions and support by tackling something so controversial? But consumers are getting fed up with being followed and snooped everywhere they go. Expect a backlash in 2012.
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7. Desktop Accounting Applications Will Begin To Die. Sure, there are downsides to cloud computing. Just check Wikipedia under “Cloud Computing,” which offers a nice list of issues. But the reality is that the old days of software versions and installations from physical media like a CD are rapidly coming to an end. Online computing in a shared environment improves the quality of the software, enhances productivity and enables a whole new dynamic in client communications never before available. By the end of 2012, the only accounting software not available online will be a handful of legacy dinosaurs.
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