Tech Predictions for 2012
At a global broadband policy conference in late 2011, I was asked to define the state of technology in this year. The answer came down to this: 2011 was the year that reality set in. That requires a bit of explanation, but we can begin to define it...
Actual Results: Only they didn’t. CEO Zuckerberg pulled the public offering at close to the last minute, frightened off by, as we noted last year, the ongoing privacy woes and the disastrous redesign of its user interface. Of the two, the threat from regulators is the greatest, and Facebook is busy hiring lawyers to try to fend them off.
Score: 0.0
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Prediction: Small desktop computers are “in.”
Actual Results: Though the trend is going smaller, this year was definitely bigger than usual. Amazingly, even tiny Netbook units were pushed aside by tablets that are even smaller. Demand is so great for these smaller units that it is hard to find a good micro-ATX case if you want to build your own.
Score: 1.0
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Prediction: Internet crime will get worse. Much, much worse.
Actual Results: You can blame some of the hoopla on increased public attention to the problem, but the reality is that by any measure you wish, crime on the internet has exploded in the past year. In part due to the economy, no doubt, but disconcerting nonetheless.
Score: 1.0
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Prediction: The computer you really want will cost $250.
Actual Results: And isn’t that a lovely thing. In both desktops and laptops, the base price for a decent model is about $250. We added a bit more RAM and better keyboards, bringing the total closer to $300, but then replaced all of the PCs in our office.
Score: 1.0
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Prediction: Big screen monitors will take the market.
Actual Results: Sure, it has skewed our trade balance with China. But the reality is that the big screen phenomena has hit full-bore. These monsters are, in some cases, even serving as wall monitors for PCs.
Score: 1.0
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Prediction: Cell-Fi will replace Wi-Fi for accountants.
Actual Results: Any tax and accounting firm that still allows its professionals to use public WiFi to conduct business does not deserve your business. It is simply too fragile. More expensive, but equally more secure, is the use of cellular 3G wireless connectivity when business has to be done in a place without a wired connection.
Score: 1.0
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Prediction: Tablet PCs will prove a flash in the pan.
Actual Results: Okay, I wish I could claim I was drunk when I wrote this, but the fact is that I was stone cold sober. What I failed to understand is that, given a choice between gold and cheap colored beads, some of the natives will choose the beads. Tablets still do not replace a laptop, but they sure do sell. I own three of them myself.
Score: 0.0
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Prediction: We will finally adopt IPv6.
Actual Results: Likewise, this looked like a sure bet back in 2010 as we began to panic over the shortage of internet addresses. But it turns out that the shortage was not as short as we thought. In fact, lots of folks are sitting on whole blocks of IP addresses, creating an active and lucrative black market in addresses. Sure, many more organizations are prepared for IPv6, but the transition remains a few years down the road.
Score: 0.0
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Harsh. Very harsh.
In the 18 years I have been doing this annual column, I have never had only seven points out of a possible 10. I could rightly claim that the economy got in the way. Or that certain IP address hoarders were looking for a quick fortune. But a bad prediction is a bad prediction, which reminds me only that I am doing better than Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet and co-founder of 3Com Corporation. In 1996, he predicted the collapse of the internet.
Nonetheless, I will endeavor to do better with the predictions for the year ahead.
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2012 Technology Predictions
1. The Internet Will Prove Fragile. We are used to thinking of the internet as some kind of enduring, monolithic network that may occasionally go down, but will never really fail. But failure, as we discovered in 2011, is more than just possible. The core elements of the internet are being targeted by other countries and by criminals, and while the two major attacks in the past year have not been catastrophic, they could have been. Look for both public and private organizations to work harder to shore up this somewhat shaky network, lest we see a global loss of communication and commerce. Think of it this way: If you lost the internet tomorrow, would your company survive? Would you?
