Tech Predictions For 2007

Prediction: Television will come to the cell phone.
Actual Results: It’s a small audience so far — only about 7 million Americans. But it is being carefully watched by TV execs, who note that those who watch TV on the tiny screen become more loyal viewers on the big screens as well.

Prediction: WiMAX wireless will be a flop.
Actual Results: Not just a flop, but a complete non-starter. Sure, a few companies are working on trials. But you won’t see a lot of WiMAX deployment anywhere outside of third-world countries. Too little, too late, too costly.

Prediction: Voice over IP will fade away.
Actual Results: Every year, I make at least one prediction that is so completely wrong I don’t even know what to say. This was one
of them.

Prediction: Cable companies and phone companies will talk merger.
Actual Results: If the Comcast/Sprint deal isn’t already underway when this hits the newsstands, it will be a miracle. The major cable companies are flush with cash, and mid-range phone companies need a video offering. But where does that leave Satellite TV?

Prediction: PDAs will make a comeback.
Actual Results: The renewed interest has put some zip back into the “Palm” brand, particularly in PDA/Cell Phones. Treo’s 700-series smartphones are giving Microsoft a run for its money, but Redmond is doing quite well with its PDA and phone software, as well.

Prediction: Payroll software will come down to three players.
Actual Results: The big story here wasn’t the market domination of ADP, Intuit and Thomson, but rather the number of software vendors who have re-discovered accountants as a marketing channel. More than half of the vendors created or re-energized their efforts to work with accountants rather than circumvent them. A win-win all around.

Prediction: Color Laser printers will become the rage.
Actual Results: With falling prices and improved print quality, Epson and HP have led the pack in pushing these ultra-printers into the retail channels. It’s now rare to find an accounting office that doesn’t own one (or know where to find one) for proposals and client financial plans.

Prediction: Disabilities will take center stage again.
Actual Results: Just ask anyone at Target, the retail giant that lost its court case in 2006 over disabled access to its website. The
disabled community is increasingly vocal about not being left behind, and the courts are beginning to take their side.

Prediction: Identity theft will become an accounting issue.
Actual Results: It has become an accounting issue, but not nearly to the degree that it could or should have. Companies continue to manage data badly, and new reports of compromised customer information arrive almost daily. Congress got sidetracked with the elections, but this issue won’t go away anytime soon.

Prediction: The SOX compliance business will collapse.
Actual Results: It didn’t collapse, but neither has it turned into the bonanza that many accountants thought it would be. Companies tightened their belts, bought the software, got through much of the process and made plans to stay that way. Meanwhile, other corporate misdeeds — like the HP espionage debacle — stole the spotlight.