From the December 2009 Issue
And so we come to the second decade of the second millennium, having witnessed
the rise of Google, YouTube and Facebook. We have seen the introduction of smartphones,
the advent of broadband Internet, the redesign of light bulbs, and the first
trials of a primitive form of teleportation.
For people who work in the technology field, this has been one of the most fascinating
and disruptive decades since … well, since the last one, which witnessed
the birth of the commercial Internet, the rise and fall of AOL, and the emergence
of TurboTax, QuickBooks and Microsoft Windows.
The point is that every decade, and every year of every decade, will bring
change to the field of technology. The trick is to be able to anticipate the
major changes and manage the change process as it occurs. Okay, no one expected
Twitter, but in reality Twitter is not an innovation but rather an extension
of existing technologies. And it remains unclear whether it will be world-changing
or simply a blip on the tech radar screen when the dust settles.
Last year was tough to predict because the meltdown in the housing industry
dragged the entire economy, including tech companies, into the biggest recession
in 75 years. Added to that was the uncertainty of an election year and the pace
of technology innovation ground to a virtual standstill. Nonetheless, we still
managed to score 8.5 out of 10 in last year’s predictions.
2009
PREDICTIONS & RESULTS |
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PREDICTION: This will be the year
of the femtocell.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Verizon and Sprint got
the first-move advantage, but AT&T was not far behind with its
version of this Internet-based mini-cell-phone tower. The real story,
however, was how this technology helped prove the business case
for others, such as Verizon's cellular-based Wi-Fi hardware. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: Windows 7 will suffer
a dreary and slow introduction.
ACTUAL RESULTS: It finally made it to retail shelves
last October, but by then almost everyone was aware that this is
just an upgrade to Vista. Better security, perhaps, and a few bells
and whistles. But mostly Windows 7 has been a yawner. In my opinion,
it’s still bloated, over-priced and less agile than its competitors. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: WiMax won’t go
much of anywhere.
ACTUAL RESULTS: WiMax was supposed to
be the future of wireless Internet access, but it just sputtered
and died. Sure, Sprint made a big deal out of deploying WiMax in
Baltimore, but even there it has not caught on. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: Technologies for environmental
action will move to the forefront.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Green, green and more
green tech. Even if global warming is debunked, there is much to
be said for technology that reduces energy consumption and leads
to a cleaner environment. “Green tech” companies are
basking in the sunlight of investment dollars yet today. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: We’ll get a technology
czar in Washington.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Actually, we got half
a dozen. And while one of them is a technology czar of sorts —
or CIO for the white house — the idea of a single person being
in control of government tech proved a bit unwieldy. This is just
as well, in an administration with 30-some “czars” already
trying to run things. |
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+0.5 |
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PREDICTION: Small computers will
continue to grow in importance.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Can you say Netbooks? The emergence
of these low-cost, stripped down laptop computers has been the biggest
story in computing hardware in the past year, as consumers discover
that all they really need is a machine that can connect to the Internet. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: Tech will get cheaper.
Much cheaper.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Netbooks (referenced above)
led the way by dropping the price of a decent laptop to under $200,
but the price drops didn’t end there. In the midst of a recession,
virtually every device saw massive price drops. The most notable:
the cost of large-screen monitors and televisions. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: Google’s Android
phones will have only moderate success.
ACTUAL RESULTS: The Android operating
system, another part of Google’s bid to take over the galaxy,
was introduced in late 2007 and to date has had only moderate success.
It is an open-source system that is fast and flexible and based
on the Linux kernel. The problem with the Android is that it simply
doesn’t break any new ground or offer substantially better
features. Oh, well. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: VoIP companies will die.
ACTUAL RESULTS: That is, the VoIP companies
that cater to the general public. While VoIP overall remains a strong
technology, market leaders Vonage and Skype are both in trouble.
Vonage is on its last legs, and Skype is on the auction block for
sale. Neither appears likely to find an effective business model
in the near term. While I have used both services, and like very
much what Skype has to offer, I don’t like it well enough
to pay much for it. Apparently others agree. |
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+1.0 |
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PREDICTION: Internet companies will
begin a new wave of consolidation.
ACTUAL RESULTS: Well, they would have
were it not for that pesky recession. The reality is that there
are simply too many broadband companies in the top tier of service.
CenturyTel did buy Embarq this year, but there are still many moves
to be made as Comcast consolidates on the Cable side and AT&T
battles to a standstill with Verizon. |
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0 |
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Total: |
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8.5 |
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